The Government's Back, But Your Gains Aren't

The markets did absolutely nothing this week. Well, almost nothing.

Picture this: You're watching paint dry, but the paint keeps changing colors every few seconds just to mess with you. That was the stock market this week.

The scoreboard:

Friday was extra spicy with the Dow dropping 0.7%, but nobody really cared because we're all tired.

After 43 days of the government being on vacation (sorry, "shut down"), Congress finally figured out how to pass a budget. They funded operations through January 30, 2026.

The problem? All that economic data we usually get? Yeah, it's delayed and janky now. So nobody knows if the economy is actually strong or just pretending.

Q4 GDP growth is looking like 1.0-1.5%. That's... not great, not terrible. It's the economic equivalent of "meh."

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Remember how AI stocks went absolutely bonkers this year? Well, the party's slowing down.

Why tech is sweating:

Think of it like this: Tech stocks ran a marathon, and now they need a Gatorade break.

Early in the week, the odds of a December rate cut TANKED.

Translation: The Fed looked around and said "nah, we're good" to lowering rates.

Why you should care:

Oh, and because of the government shutdown, the Fed has less data to work with. So they're basically flying blind while deciding whether to cut rates. Fun!

China's economy is looking rough. Their fixed-asset investment is weak, which is fancy speak for "they're not building as much stuff."

Since tech companies sell globally (chips, AI hardware, all that jazz), when China sneezes, U.S. tech stocks catch a cold.

Here's a nerdy thing that matters: Even though the major indexes held up okay, most individual stocks are NOT doing well.

The percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average barely moved. That means fewer stocks are actually participating in any rally.

What this means: The market is being carried by like 10 mega-cap stocks while everything else is struggling. That's not healthy.

Meanwhile, energy and real estate stocks are quietly winning while everyone obsesses over AI.

Things to actually pay attention to:

📈 Jobs & inflation data - Could be wild since the data is all backed up from the shutdown

💰 Tech earnings - Big names still reporting. Will they justify their insane valuations? (Probably not, but who knows)

🏦 Fed signals - Any hint about rate cuts will move markets FAST

🌏 Global growth - If China or emerging markets puke, we're all going down with them

🔄 Sector rotation - Is tech really dying or just taking a breather?

This week was boring, and that's actually kind of concerning.

The government is back (yay?), but the economy is still recovering from the shutdown chaos. Tech stocks are getting tired. The Fed isn't cutting rates yet. And nobody knows what's actually happening because the data is all messed up.

For the vibes: Don't panic, but also don't get too comfortable. The market is in recalibration mode.

Think of this as the awkward middle part of a movie where nothing major happens, but you know the big twist is coming.

TL;DR: Markets went sideways. Tech is tired. Government dysfunction has consequences. Stay alert, and maybe diversify out of your 100% tech portfolio.

Not financial advice.